The NCAA Tournament begins today. Below is a look at four of Thursday afternoon’s matchups.
Seton Hall vs. WICHITA STATE (-3,124) – 12:20 p.m. ET
My overall power ratings favor Wichita State by 3 ½ points and both squads should be focused going into an SU loss. Seton Hall struggled down the stretch, going just 2-4 SU/ATS in their last six games, including an outright loss to Rutgers, 48-61, in the first round of the Big East tournament as a 1-point favorite.
Seton Hall hasn’t played for seven days and Wichita State hasn’t played for eleven days. The Shockers finished first in the Missouri Valley regular season with a SU record of 14-4 and were first in the conference in field goal defense (39.1%) and three-point defense (30.9%).
PACIFIC vs. BOSTON COLLEGE (-7 ½, 134 ½) – 12:40 p.m. ET
Boston College finds itself in a difficult scheduling situation as the Eagles must travel across the country and play in the air and altitude of Salt Lake City, Utah. Fatigue could definitely be a factor as the Eagles are playing their fourth game in seven days after a hard-fought loss against Duke in the ACC Finals last weekend.
Pacific dominated a weak Big West conference and won the conference regular season and tournament championships. Pacific are 13-1 SU in their last fourteen games, but they have played an extremely weak schedule this season. Overall, Pacific was ranked 88th in RPI and was just 2-3 SU against Top-100 clubs, while Boston College ranked 11-6 SU against Top-100 with a solid 22 RPI.
Overall, my power ratings favor Boston College by only 5 points, so this line seems a bit inflated.
ALABAMA vs. MARQUETTE (-2 ½, 136) – 2:40 p.m. ET
Both teams have been stronger at home than on the road this season, as Marquette went 14-2 SU at home but just 6-8 SU on the road, while Alabama went 14-4 SU at home but just 3 -8 SU out. .
My overall power ratings favor Marquette by 2 points and both teams enter this game with a loss and needed overall bids to secure a tournament spot. Marquette has an RPI of 31, while Alabama’s RPI was a weaker 56; however, the Crimson Tide actually fared better against tough competition, going 5-5 SU against Top-50 opponents, while Marquette only went 3-6 SU against Top-50 opponents.
These clubs also faced three common opponents in Notre Dame, South Carolina, and Winthrop. Marquette fared better in these games with an SU record of 3-1, winning by an average margin of +1.5 points per game and outscoring their opponent 46.3 to 42.6 percent on average. Alabama, meanwhile, was just 1-2 SU against those same common opponents and the Tide were outscored by -5.0 points per game and outshot 44.4 to 44.8 percent overall.
Winthrop vs. TENNESSEE (-6 ½, 140) – 2:40 p.m. ET
Tennessee is a questionable #2 seed; however, the committee members balance things out by pitting them against a very dangerous #15 seed. Winthrop is a veteran team that returns with the starting five from last year’s team that put up a tough fight against Gonzaga in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
Tennessee is just 1-3 SU/ATS in its last four games, but the Volunteers should be more focused after losing in the first round of the SEC tournament. High seeds from an SU loss usually work well, but the line is a bit inflated as my overall power ratings favor Tennessee by only 6 points.
Both clubs rely heavily on the 3-point shot and Winthrop has better perimeter defense, allowing just 31.9% (vs. opponents who averaged just 34.0%), while Tennessee allowed 36. 0% from long range (vs. opponents who averaged just 35.3% overall). ) .