Now the brigade of recreational sports bettors line the wicket and provide, and sometimes take, line value from us “Sharps” while March Madness is in full swing. It goes without saying to me that one has to navigate a few land mines along the way, as LESS is MORE when it comes to betting on March Madness, both the NCAA and NIT tournaments that are underway on Tuesday night. . There is a lot of parity, especially in this year’s NIT tournament in college basketball. I can say without a doubt, or many arguments, that there are 5 or 6 teams in the NIT that could be round 1 winners at the big dance, and some possible sweet 16 teams there as well. Always look at the road and home records in NIT game matchups, as they are played on team courts and don’t go to a neutral site until the semifinal games in New York. The home team always has an advantage, and you can catch a value short line or two.
High seeds in the NIT sometimes have a disappointing place, having been voted out by the NCAA tournament committee. Cincinnati comes to mind in that category, as do SW Missouri State (RPI of 21) and Creighton. These teams, for example, get first-round byes and will put up a decent number at home in their first NIT game, and depending on the line, it may be worth looking at the underdog in those scenarios. Maryland is happy to be here, and they are the regional No. 1 seed, and Louisville, who should also provide a tough test in their first game, so those big guys would be worth it!
NCAA tournament trends are everywhere, I wouldn’t buy them all, look here, right now. Who came limping into the tournament, and who came in hot and on a roll, I look at Kansas, for example, 15-1 in their last 16 and they won the Big 12 Tourney over Texas, who beat them by 25 earlier this year? That is the question that money asks. How about the shooting percentage in away games throughout the year? I can’t stress free throw percentage enough, so many game outcomes depend on it.
I’ve heard a lot about #5 seeds versus #12 seeds. In the last 5 years, the #12 seeds are 10-9-1 ATS, hardly a moneymaker even against the number, but always competitive. The BEST ATS scenario in round 1 has been No. 7 vs. No. 10 in the last 5 years at 13-7 ATS. california vs. NC State finds itself in this setting this season, Marquette vs. Alabama too, and I got to see those #7 seeds making hay in round 1. And last but not least, the #15 seeds have covered 65% ATS overall in the last 5 years, and they have always been a huge underdog. This fact is found within the coach of a #2 seeded team resting players after the game is decided early on, and the back covers are evident in the correct setting. Check out the two highest point earners and do your homework and find the best value in that scenario.
All things considered, it should be a great tournament season, and there will be a Cinderella team or two in both the NCAA and NIT tournaments, and there will be a monster surprise or two in round 1. Pick and choose your teams wisely, use manage money well and don’t get caught up in all the hype or what Billy Packer or Digger Phelps says and do your homework and look for real value and tangible elements to harm in March Madness because that’s what the pros do, I assure you. you.